🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Jong PSV U21 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.82 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.06 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 55% | Draw 24% | Jong PSV U21 21%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 65%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights