ADO Den Haag 2-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bingoal Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 1W 5D 4L at Bingoal Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in ADO Den Haag's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Volendam in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 78% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 75% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.001 / defence 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 1.091 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.319. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 ADO Den Haag games / 2 FC Volendam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 53% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 24%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 4.17. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 53% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.18 / FC Volendam 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.001 / def 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 1.091 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Volendam xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam part of?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 53% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.00) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.09x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.37
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.64
1.46
FC Volendam xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.46 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 25L across 36 games — 0.53 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 6W 7D 5L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 5D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.03 scored and 2.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 25L in their last 36 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or FC Volendam away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.39 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 3, FC Volendam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when FC Volendam 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for ADO Den Haag, 78% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for ADO Den Haag and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ADO Den Haag's games and 78% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out FC Volendam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Volendam 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 1.46 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against FC Volendam attack 1.09 / defence 1.37, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 53% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 24%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 75%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.