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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat FC OSS 5-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.42 xG and FC OSS 1.29 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against FC OSS attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 62% | Draw 19% | FC OSS 19%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights