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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Emmen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Emmen 2-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.76 xG and Emmen 0.98 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.54 / defence 0.79 against Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 75% | Draw 15% | Emmen 11%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 64%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights