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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Dordrecht 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Dordrecht 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.12 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Dordrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 44% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 30%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.75 PPG, Dordrecht 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights