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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Den Bosch 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 2-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 3.24 xG and Den Bosch 1.03 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.43 / defence 0.80 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 80% | Draw 12% | Den Bosch 8%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 61%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights