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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Den Bosch 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.28 xG and Den Bosch 0.82 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Den Bosch attack 0.80 / defence 0.80, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 47% | Draw 30% | Den Bosch 24%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights