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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.93 xG and Cambuur 1.44 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 49% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 29%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 65%, Cambuur 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 2.03 PPG, Cambuur 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights