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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat ADO Den Haag 3-4 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.59 xG and Cambuur 1.44 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 40% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 34%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 65%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.72 PPG, Cambuur 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights