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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Almere City FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Almere City FC 2-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.46 xG and Almere City FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.29 / defence 0.92 against Almere City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 65% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 17%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 56%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights