Today's Likely Draw Predictions – Fixtures Most Likely to End in a Draw

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Likely Draw Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest predicted draw probability — Sunday 24 July 2022

Thu 21 Fri 22 Sat 23 Sun 24 Mon 25 Tue 26 Wed 27

Our prediction model uses each team's attack and defence strengths to simulate every possible scoreline. The draw probability sums all equal-score outcomes (0–0, 1–1, 2–2, etc.) from the score matrix. Fixtures at the top of this list show the highest statistical likelihood of ending level — useful for targeting the match draw market. Only fixtures with a predicted draw probability of 25 %+ are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 24 July 2022. Fortaleza EC vs Santos sits top on 39% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 39% down to 27%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

Serie A supplies four of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, three landed the draw market — 15%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Brazil

✓ Under 2.5 84% ✓ BTTS No 75%

Serie A · Brazil

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 68%

Allsvenskan · Sweden

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 53%

Serie A · Brazil

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 64%

Serie A · Brazil

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%

Allsvenskan · Sweden

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 56%

2. Bundesliga · Germany

Allsvenskan · Sweden

Ekstraklasa · Poland

#10

Primera División · Chile

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#11

Premier League · Russia

#12

Serie A · Brazil

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#13

Bundesliga · Austria

#14

Premier League · Russia

#15

Eliteserien · Norway

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 58%

#16

Bundesliga · Austria

#17

Super League · Switzerland

✓ Over 2.5 61% BTTS Yes 65%

#18

Canadian Premier League · Canada

Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#19

Veikkausliiga · Finland

#20

Primera División · Chile

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Showing top 20 fixtures by predicted draw probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Tightly Contested Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No

Likely Draw — common questions

What does the Likely Draw market mean?

Likely Draw settles on whether a match finishes level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate draw probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw probability shown here is the sum of every level scoreline — 0–0, 1–1, 2–2 and beyond — in the model's score matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Likely Draw on Sunday 24 July 2022?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Fortaleza EC vs Santos at 39% draw probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 25% or higher draw probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these draw predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.