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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.16 xG and Venezia 1.53 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Venezia attack 1.28 / defence 0.85, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 27% | Draw 29% | Venezia 44%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 39%, Venezia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights