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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 17, as Virtus Entella and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.97 xG and Sudtirol 0.97 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 38%, Sudtirol 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 0.94 PPG, Sudtirol 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights