🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Virtus Entella cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 37% | Draw 36% | Sampdoria 27%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 29%, Sampdoria 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 0.86 PPG, Sampdoria 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights