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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Pescara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 9, as Virtus Entella and Pescara drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 2.04 xG and Pescara 1.05 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Virtus Entella fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.49, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 57% | Draw 27% | Pescara 16%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 38%, Pescara 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.12 PPG, Pescara 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pescara (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights