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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.01 xG and Palermo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Palermo attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 31% | Draw 36% | Palermo 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights