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Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Padova 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.56 xG and Padova 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Padova attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 51% | Draw 29% | Padova 20%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 37%, Padova 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Padova's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.03 PPG, Padova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights