🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Modena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.85 xG and Modena 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 0.72, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 25% | Draw 32% | Modena 44%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Virtus Entella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Modena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights