Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Virtus Entella host Hellas Verona at Stadio Comunale in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella at Stadio Comunale this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hellas Verona's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Virtus Entella's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Virtus Entella trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 54% versus Hellas Verona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 38% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.39 xG and Hellas Verona 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.879 / defence 1.031 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Virtus Entella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Virtus Entella games / 10 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 40% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 30%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Hellas Verona 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hellas Verona (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 70% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 40% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Virtus Entella 1.39 / Hellas Verona 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.879 / def 1.031 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hellas Verona xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona part of?
Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 40% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 0.88x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.32
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Hellas Verona xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.19 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 12W 16D 20L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 26L across 48 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.08 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 9D 5L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 3W 8D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 7W 15D 26L in their last 48 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Hellas Verona away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.57 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.74 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 70%, Hellas Verona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Virtus Entella) and 56% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Virtus Entella's games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.