Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Virtus Entella host Hellas Verona at Stadio Comunale in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella at Stadio Comunale this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Virtus Entella carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Virtus Entella trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 55% versus Hellas Verona 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 40% | Hellas Verona 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.52 xG and Hellas Verona 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.004 / defence 1.179 | Hellas Verona attack 0.857 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Virtus Entella games / 3 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 45% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 29%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 3.45. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 80% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 45% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Virtus Entella 1.52 / Hellas Verona 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.004 / def 1.179 | Hellas Verona attack 0.857 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hellas Verona xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona part of?
Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 45% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 1.00x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.93
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Hellas Verona xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.17 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 11W 13D 18L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 4W 13D 25L across 42 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Virtus Entella by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 2W 8D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.79 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 4W 13D 25L in their last 42 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Hellas Verona away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.67 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.67 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 71%, Hellas Verona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Virtus Entella) and 57% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Virtus Entella's games and 57% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 57% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.