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Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Empoli 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.79 xG and Empoli 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 50% | Draw 30% | Empoli 20%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 40%, Empoli 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights