Virtus Entella vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Comunale — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.30 PPG, Cremonese 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Virtus Entella, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Virtus Entella trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 54% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 40% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.64 xG and Cremonese 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.017 / defence 1.167 | Cremonese attack 0.864 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Data: 43 Virtus Entella games / 5 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 48% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 28%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 3.57. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Virtus Entella as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 80% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 48% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Virtus Entella 1.64 / Cremonese 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.017 / def 1.167 | Cremonese attack 0.864 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Cremonese xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Cremonese kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese part of?
Virtus Entella vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Virtus Entella and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Virtus Entella 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Virtus Entella and Cremonese in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.06
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.83
1.19
Cremonese xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.19 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 11W 14D 18L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 22L across 43 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.09 PPG, Cremonese on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 8D 4L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cremonese's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.86 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 12D 22L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Cremonese away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.67 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Virtus Entella and Cremonese runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Cremonese?
From 1 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 71%, Cremonese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Virtus Entella) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Cremonese tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.