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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Catanzaro cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Catanzaro beat Virtus Entella 1-3 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.31 xG and Catanzaro 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Catanzaro outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Catanzaro attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 42% | Draw 29% | Catanzaro 30%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Catanzaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 32%, Catanzaro 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights