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Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Carrarese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.56 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Carrarese attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 50% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 35%, Carrarese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.05 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights