Virtus Entella vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Virtus Entella welcome Benevento to Stadio Comunale. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Comunale — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.20 PPG, Benevento 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Benevento in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Virtus Entella 75% and Benevento 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 75% | Benevento 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.54 xG and Benevento 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.010 / defence 1.178 | Benevento attack 0.700 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Virtus Entella games / 4 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 51% | Draw 26% | Benevento 24%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 4.17. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Virtus Entella 80% | Benevento 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 51% | Draw 26% | Benevento 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Virtus Entella 1.54 / Benevento 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.010 / def 1.178 | Benevento attack 0.700 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Benevento xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Benevento kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Benevento part of?
Virtus Entella vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 51% chance of winning, Benevento a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Virtus Entella and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Benevento in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (1.01) and Benevento's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.90
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.50
0.96
Benevento xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.96 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Virtus Entella come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.00 PPG, Benevento on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Virtus Entella have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Benevento in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Benevento in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Virtus Entella at 75%, Benevento at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Virtus Entella and 50% for Benevento. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Virtus Entella's games and 75% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Virtus Entella's matches and 50% of Benevento's.
Do Virtus Entella and Benevento tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.