Virtus Entella vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Virtus Entella welcome Benevento to Stadio Comunale. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Comunale — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benevento are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Benevento in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 60% versus Benevento 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 40% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.15 xG and Benevento 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.880 / defence 1.030 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Virtus Entella games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 35% | Draw 33% | Benevento 32%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Virtus Entella 70% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 35% | Draw 33% | Benevento 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Virtus Entella 1.15 / Benevento 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.880 / def 1.030 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Benevento kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Benevento part of?
Virtus Entella vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 35% chance of winning, Benevento a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Virtus Entella and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Benevento in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.88) and Benevento's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.04
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.22
1.07
Benevento xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.07 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Virtus Entella come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 4D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Virtus Entella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Virtus Entella's home form reads 0W 3D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Virtus Entella are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Virtus Entella have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Benevento in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 0.75 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 75%, Benevento 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Virtus Entella and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Benevento tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.