🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Virtus Entella 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Virtus Entella 1-2 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.64 xG and Avellino 0.81 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Avellino outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Avellino attack 0.69 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 56% | Draw 26% | Avellino 18%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 34%, Avellino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Avellino's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.07 PPG, Avellino 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights