Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.25 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.10 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 75% and Sudtirol 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Sudtirol 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.41 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.013 / defence 1.194 | Sudtirol attack 0.936 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 4 Vicenza Virtus games / 42 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 39% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 35%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sudtirol 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vicenza Virtus are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 39% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.41 / Sudtirol 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.013 / def 1.194 | Sudtirol attack 0.936 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sudtirol xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 39% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.01) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.94x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.90
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.73
1.32
Sudtirol xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.32 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 75%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Vicenza Virtus) and 0% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 50% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 0% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.