Vicenza Virtus vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Padova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Padova 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Padova 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.01 xG and Padova 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.340 | Padova attack 0.870 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 48 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 30% | Padova 45%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Padova 2.22. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 30% | Padova 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.01 / Padova 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.340 | Padova attack 0.870 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Padova (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Padova xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Padova kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance of winning, Padova a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.87x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
25%
4.04
30%
3.30
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.45
1.44
Padova xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.44 for Padova, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Padova in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Padova away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Padova away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Padova in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vicenza Virtus, 75% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 50% for Padova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 75% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 50% of Padova's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Padova tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Padova in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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