Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Mantova at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Vicenza Virtus's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Mantova trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Mantova 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Mantova 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.91 xG and Mantova 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / defence 1.343 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 18% | Draw 27% | Mantova 56%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Mantova 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 18% | Draw 27% | Mantova 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.91 / Mantova 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / def 1.343 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mantova (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Mantova xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 18% chance of winning, Mantova a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
18%
5.66
27%
3.75
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.67
1.76
Mantova xG
5.66
18%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
32.81
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.76 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 2L across 10 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vicenza Virtus have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Mantova in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Mantova away?
Mantova's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Mantova away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 75%, Mantova at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Vicenza Virtus) and 25% (Mantova).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 75% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 25% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Mantova tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.