Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hellas Verona (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hellas Verona are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hellas Verona in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vicenza Virtus, 1 for Hellas Verona and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 73% and Hellas Verona 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 82% | Hellas Verona 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.15 xG and Hellas Verona 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.591 | Hellas Verona attack 0.820 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Data: 11 Vicenza Virtus games / 11 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 47%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 2.13. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 80% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.15 / Hellas Verona 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.591 | Hellas Verona attack 0.820 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hellas Verona xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 26% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.84x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.82x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
26%
3.91
28%
3.59
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.76
1.61
Hellas Verona xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.62
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.61 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 64%.
Defensively: Hellas Verona in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Hellas Verona away?
Hellas Verona's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.80 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Hellas Verona 2-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Vicenza Virtus, 60% for Hellas Verona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Vicenza Virtus and 40% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 60% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 40% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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