Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.20 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vicenza Virtus lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 70% versus Cremonese 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Cremonese 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.17 xG and Cremonese 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / defence 1.343 | Cremonese attack 0.772 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 32% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 37%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Cremonese 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 32% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.17 / Cremonese 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / def 1.343 | Cremonese attack 0.772 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 32% chance of winning, Cremonese a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.84x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.77x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.21
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Cremonese xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.28 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.20 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Cremonese in 30%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Cremonese in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Cremonese 0-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 75%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 50% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 50% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 50% of Cremonese's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.