Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Carrarese to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Vicenza Virtus) versus 1.00 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Carrarese 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.17 xG and Carrarese 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / defence 1.343 | Carrarese attack 0.813 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 48 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 30% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 39%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Carrarese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 30% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.17 / Carrarese 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.842 / def 1.343 | Carrarese attack 0.813 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 30% chance of winning, Carrarese a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.84x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.27
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Carrarese xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.34 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 0.90 PPG, Carrarese on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Carrarese away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.75 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 75%, Carrarese 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 50% for Carrarese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 25% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 50% of Carrarese's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Carrarese tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.