Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Avellino at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Avellino make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Avellino have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Avellino are 0.70 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 0W, Avellino 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Avellino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Avellino 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Avellino 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.06 xG and Avellino 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.849 / defence 1.355 | Avellino attack 0.905 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 49 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 30% | Avellino 45%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Avellino 2.22. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Avellino as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Avellino 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 30% | Avellino 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.06 / Avellino 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.849 / def 1.355 | Avellino attack 0.905 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Avellino (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Avellino xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance of winning, Avellino a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Avellino?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Avellino 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Avellino in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Avellino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.85) and Avellino's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.91x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
25%
3.95
30%
3.31
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Avellino xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
6%
17.25
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.47 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Avellino sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Avellino have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avellino's season.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.50 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Avellino in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Avellino in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Avellino have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Avellino away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Avellino away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Avellino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Avellino?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Avellino have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Avellino 3-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Avellino see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vicenza Virtus, 100% for Avellino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Vicenza Virtus) and 25% (Avellino).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 100% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 25% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Avellino tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Avellino in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →