Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Ascoli travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Vicenza Virtus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ascoli — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Ascoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Ascoli 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Ascoli 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.93 xG and Ascoli 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.340 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 10 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 19% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 54%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Ascoli 1.85. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 19% | Draw 27% | Ascoli 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.93 / Ascoli 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.340 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Ascoli xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 19% chance of winning, Ascoli a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
19%
5.34
27%
3.65
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.63
1.70
Ascoli xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
29.26
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.70 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 1L across 10 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vicenza Virtus have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ascoli's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.50 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ascoli in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Ascoli in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 2-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Ascoli tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 75%, Ascoli 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Vicenza Virtus) and 25% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 50%; Ascoli in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 25% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 25% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Ascoli tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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