Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arezzo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 1D 3L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arezzo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo's away record: 3W 0D 3L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Vicenza Virtus, 0.80 for Arezzo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 73% versus Arezzo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 82% | Arezzo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.30 xG and Arezzo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.849 / defence 1.355 | Arezzo attack 0.821 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 11 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 34% | Draw 30% | Arezzo 36%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Arezzo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arezzo at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arezzo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 80% | Arezzo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 34% | Draw 30% | Arezzo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.30 / Arezzo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.849 / def 1.355 | Arezzo attack 0.821 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Arezzo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Arezzo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 34% chance of winning, Arezzo a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arezzo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Arezzo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Arezzo's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.82x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arezzo Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.30
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.64
1.34
Arezzo xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.34 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arezzo sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.00 for Arezzo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Arezzo have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.80 PPG; Arezzo away: 1.20 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 80%, Arezzo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Vicenza Virtus and 60% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 40% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 60% of Arezzo's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Arezzo tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →