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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.66 xG and Virtus Entella 0.61 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.40 / defence 0.79 against Virtus Entella attack 0.72 / defence 1.42, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 80% | Draw 14% | Virtus Entella 6%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 59%, Virtus Entella 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights