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Dominant Venezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Sudtirol 3-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.51 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 44% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 23%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 45%, Sudtirol 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Sudtirol's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 0.89 PPG, Sudtirol 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights