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Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.07 xG and Sampdoria 0.84 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Sampdoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 64% | Draw 24% | Sampdoria 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Sampdoria 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 0.92 PPG, Sampdoria 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights