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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against Reggiana attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 58% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 18%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 52%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.35 PPG, Reggiana 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights