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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Pescara 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Pescara 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.18 xG and Pescara 0.84 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pescara outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Pescara attack 0.81 / defence 1.42, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 68% | Draw 19% | Pescara 13%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 64%, Pescara 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Pescara's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights