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Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Palermo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Palermo 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.66 xG and Palermo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 22%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Palermo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.44 PPG, Palermo 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights