Venezia 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Venezia (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Venezia face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Palermo at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Palermo's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Venezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Venezia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Venezia have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Palermo have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Venezia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Venezia and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 63% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Palermo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.94 xG and Palermo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.390 / defence 1.106 | Palermo attack 1.069 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 76 Venezia games / 76 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 25% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 3.85. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 25% | Palermo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Venezia 1.94 / Palermo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.390 / def 1.106 | Palermo attack 1.069 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Venezia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Palermo xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Palermo kick off?
Venezia vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Venezia 2 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Venezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Palermo part of?
Venezia vs Palermo is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 49% chance of winning, Palermo a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Venezia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
Record (5 meetings): Venezia 4W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Venezia and Palermo in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Palermo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.39) and Palermo's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.04
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.32
1.38
Palermo xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Venezia and 1.38 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 35W 17D 26L from 78 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 27D 24L across 78 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.56 PPG, Palermo on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 20W 8D 10L from 38 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 10W 15D 13L across 38 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.44 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 78 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 35W 17D 26L in their last 78 games (1.56 PPG), while Palermo have gone 27W 27D 24L in their last 78 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Palermo away?
Venezia's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.79 PPG; Palermo away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Palermo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Venezia have won 6, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Palermo?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 71%, Palermo at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Venezia) and 45% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 63% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Venezia's matches and 45% of Palermo's.
Do Venezia and Palermo tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Palermo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.94 xG and Palermo 1.38 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.39 / defence 1.11 against Palermo attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 49% | Draw 25% | Palermo 26%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.56 PPG, Palermo 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.