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Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.21 xG and Empoli 0.85 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Empoli landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Empoli attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 67% | Draw 22% | Empoli 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights