Venezia 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Final as Venezia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 2.00 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Venezia, 1 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Cremonese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.56 xG and Cremonese 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.378 / defence 1.101 | Cremonese attack 0.834 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 76 Venezia games / 38 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 4.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 47% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 1.56 / Cremonese 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.378 / def 1.101 | Cremonese attack 0.834 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Venezia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cremonese kick off?
Venezia vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cremonese?
Venezia 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Venezia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cremonese part of?
Venezia vs Cremonese is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 47% chance of winning, Cremonese a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Venezia and Cremonese in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Venezia's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.47
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
Cremonese xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Venezia and 1.07 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 79 games, going 36W 18D 25L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.25 PPG from 79 outings (25W 24D 30L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.59 PPG, Cremonese on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.24 points per game from 38 outings (11W 14D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 36W 18D 25L in their last 79 games (1.59 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 25W 24D 30L in their last 79 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cremonese away?
Venezia's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.87 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Venezia 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Cremonese?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Cremonese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Venezia) and 53% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 58% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Venezia's matches and 53% of Cremonese's.
Do Venezia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.56 xG and Cremonese 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.38 / defence 1.10 against Cremonese attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 47% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 24%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.59 PPG, Cremonese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.