Ternana 0-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ternana at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Bari meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bari (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bari away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Ternana's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bari's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ternana lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 53% versus Bari 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 49% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.20 xG and Bari 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.735 / defence 0.811 | Bari attack 0.820 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Ternana's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Ternana games / 76 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 44% | Draw 34% | Bari 22%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 40% | Bari 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 44% | Draw 34% | Bari 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ternana 1.20 / Bari 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.735 / def 0.811 | Bari attack 0.820 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Ternana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bari xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Bari kick off?
Ternana vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Bari?
Ternana 0 - 3 Bari.
Where is Ternana vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Bari part of?
Ternana vs Bari is a Relegation Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 44% chance of winning, Bari a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ternana and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Bari?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 3 | Bari 1W.
What form are Ternana and Bari in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Bari (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.73x the league average against Bari's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.82x) against Ternana's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
44%
2.27
34%
2.96
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.97
0.78
Bari xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ternana and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ternana and 0.78 for Bari, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 22W 21D 34L from 77 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 25W 30D 22L across 77 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Ternana against 1.36 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 13W 12D 13L from 38 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 11W 13D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Bari in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 22W 21D 34L in their last 77 games (1.13 PPG), while Bari have gone 25W 30D 22L in their last 77 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Bari away?
Ternana's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.34 PPG; Bari away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Ternana 0-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 45%, Bari 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Ternana) and 34% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 32% of games; Bari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ternana's recent matches and 53% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Ternana's recent games and 34% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Bari tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bari run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Ternana 0-3 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.20 xG and Bari 0.78 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.73 / defence 0.81 against Bari attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 44% | Draw 34% | Bari 22%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 49%, Bari 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.13 PPG, Bari 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.