Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sudtirol, 1.00 for Vicenza Virtus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 60% and Vicenza Virtus 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 20% | Vicenza Virtus 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.70 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / defence 0.774 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.833 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.185. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Sudtirol games / 5 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 60% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 16%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Vicenza Virtus 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Vicenza Virtus 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 60% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.70 / Vicenza Virtus 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / def 0.774 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.833 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 60% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.94) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.83x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.18
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.46
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
33.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.76 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 3W 2D 0L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vicenza Virtus's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 80%.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Sudtirol's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 2.33 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 33%, Vicenza Virtus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Sudtirol) and 100% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.