Sudtirol 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sudtirol (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sudtirol face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Druso: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Druso.
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sudtirol's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Sampdoria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 49% versus Sampdoria 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 36% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.844 / defence 0.721 | Sampdoria attack 0.814 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.269. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sudtirol games / 45 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 53% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 17%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 5.88. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 53% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Sudtirol 1.47 / Sampdoria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.844 / def 0.721 | Sampdoria attack 0.814 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sampdoria xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kick off?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadio Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria part of?
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 53% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sudtirol and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
Record (6 meetings): Sudtirol 4W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.84) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.81x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.36
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.21
0.74
Sampdoria xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.74 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 21D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 1.07 PPG from 45 outings (12W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.07 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 6W 10D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Sampdoria have taken 0.57 points per game from 23 outings (2W 7D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 21D 14L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Sampdoria away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.22 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
1
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
From 7 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Sampdoria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Sampdoria?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 44%, Sampdoria 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Sudtirol) and 44% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 44% of games; Sampdoria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 61% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sudtirol's recent games and 44% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sudtirol and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Druso, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.47 xG and Sampdoria 0.74 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against Sampdoria attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 53% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 17%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 36%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.13 PPG, Sampdoria 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.