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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Sampdoria 3-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.32 xG and Sampdoria 1.03 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Sampdoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 35% | Sampdoria 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 56%, Sampdoria 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.21 PPG, Sampdoria 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights