🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Sampdoria 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.53 xG and Sampdoria 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Sampdoria attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 36%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Sampdoria 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights