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Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.13 xG and Reggiana 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 1.35 against Reggiana attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 27% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 43%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.13 PPG, Reggiana 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights