Sudtirol vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 44%, yet in-form Mantova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sudtirol welcome Mantova to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mantova are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 2 for Mantova and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Mantova trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 49% versus Mantova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 34% | Mantova 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Mantova 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.927 / defence 0.748 | Mantova attack 1.050 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.209. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sudtirol games / 41 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 44% | Draw 28% | Mantova 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mantova (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 44% | Draw 28% | Mantova 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.29 / Mantova 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.927 / def 0.748 | Mantova attack 1.050 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mantova xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Mantova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Mantova part of?
Sudtirol vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 44% chance of winning, Mantova a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Mantova 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.93) and Mantova's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.53
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.24
0.95
Mantova xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.95 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 19D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (15W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.12 PPG, Mantova on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sudtirol's home form reads 6W 8D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.24 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 9W 19D 13L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Mantova have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Mantova away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.24 PPG; Mantova away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Mantova won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Sudtirol 0-3 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 43%, Mantova 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sudtirol) and 52% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 43% of games; Mantova in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 43% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sudtirol's recent games and 52% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Mantova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mantova in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.